DISQUS

Ken Kennedy · 8 months ago

Agreed, Felix. It's just a gut feeling I get, but pretty much same as you...it appears we may be over the hump this time. The Kindle may or may not be the ultimate winner here, but I think the e-reader has finally broken out of the "only total geeks buy these things" niche. And the Kindle itself is certainly in the driver's seat; it's their market to lose, IMO. Not that it couldn't happen, but I think they'd have to do it to themselves.

felix · 8 months ago

Ken - their market to lose indeed. If I was a betting man, I wouldn't bet against them on this front, either! :)

ronin · 8 months ago

I still don't see many people with these things. My coworkers and I excluded, I've only seen three others on the train ever since the original Kindle came out. And only one of those was a Kindle 2. And I have yet to see a non-Kindle e-reader in the wild. As you said, the available library still needs a lot of work. So I think "only total geeks and people with more disposable income than sense" are still the only ones buying them.

As for tablet PCs, they've sucked because all they've been so far are laptops with a swiveling screen. Unless you can make one that's around a pound (preferably less) and at most half an inch thick, nobody except the ubergeeks will want to use one on a regular basis. Arrington's web tablet is about as close to something I'd actually use than everything that's come along so far but even then it's just a web tablet and not a full-blown PC.

felix · 8 months ago

Yeah - it's definitely not a mainstream device yet, but I think the market is already made it just doesn't know it yet. I guess we'll see, but that Hearst and B&N seem to be looking to enter the market makes me think that they, knowing something that we don't, are confident in the market.

On the tablet pc front - there's been a few that have tried to come out that weren't swivel top laptops. Nokia's 770 and 800 went pretty much nowhere. I seem to recall another one awhile back that had like a person's name - cisco? I can't remember, but it was also just a flat screen that you could write on. Something nobody has wanted thus far - nobody except the tech companies.

ronin · 8 months ago

Heh, the publishers probably just don't want to pull a blunder like the music industry did with Apple. At least they have the luxury that the e-book market is much slower moving than music.

The Nokia's were more akin to the web tablet than a tablet PC. Our IT guy had one and yeah, didn't do much with it after the initial novelty wore off. And I believe my cousin in Taiwan was using one as a web tablet for awhile. Before he got the iPhone. You can basically do the same thing on an iPhone but with the iPhone being even more portable and easier to use. But yeah, I don't see a big market for tablet anything's right now. I wouldn't mind having an iPhone style-like device the size of a Kindle or a bit larger that would be an e-reader/web browser + be able to run iPhone/iTouch-like apps though.

Robin · 8 months ago

Totally agree about the kindle being successful. I was skeptical before, but even the iPhone app is great. Incidentally you were right about the free intro chapter being enough. It's worked perfectly for me, and I haven't once wanted the $99c per chapter that I suggested back at the time.

However, I do think there is going to be a market for an Apple tablet device. It has to be a multi-touch device closer in operation to the iPhone than the desktop OS - and that's where i think the opportunity lies. I've owned multiple tablet PCs in the past - actually dating back to Windows for Pen! - all for research purposes at one job or another and yes- they've all been little more than a curiosity, but that's because they were running an OS tailored for office content creation. Mac OS is still mostly tailored for media creation, but the iPhone OS is a player/consumer device, and if the tablet is a large media player where media = games, connected apps, books, video, and websites, then I think they will have a winner.

felix · 8 months ago

That's cool! Did you end up also getting a Kindle or just reading on the iPhone? Have you don't much long form reading on the iPhone? I think that would melt my brain, but I also have a very delicate brain. :)

We'll see - I don't doubt that if a table is going to be successful, Apple's going to be the one to build it. I just don't see it happening. I mean a big screen iPod touch would be cool - but it'd be some wierd limbo where you don't have a hard keyboard to play with and it'd be expensive so would you actually get one just so you can surf while you're sitting on a couch? As opposed to picking up a laptop which might be more generally useful? I dunno. As an e-reader, even with a large screen it'd be tough because of weight, battery life and active screen.

Robin · 8 months ago

I didn't end up getting a kindle - I've been using it on the iPhone. I
expected it to be unusable regardless of the quality of the software but
since it was free, I gave it a go and it turns out I was wrong.
Since the phone is with me during all kinds of 'waiting periods' and a
kindle would not be, the kindle is of marginal value to me, although if I
buy more books this way it may well end up being a requisite item for home
use.

Yeah - I am not totally convinced about the jumbo ipod tablet yet. What I
do know is that my MacBook Air is not a good ebook. I have read a few
long-form pieces on it, and even the iPhone would have been better.

How much would it actually cost I wonder? $600? Backup to time-capsule,
etc. It could end up being as good a solution for the grandparents as for
the always-on generation. Think star-trek rather than tablet-pc. It's
really all about the software, and it's really only a matter of time. For
all we know it could still be a year away.

In any case, I encourage you to try the kindle iPhone app. The experience
has definitely taught me something.

David · 8 months ago

I fly twice a week and a lot of my print reading is take off, landing, and sitting on the runway... I would love a kindle for this but sadly... it has an on/off switch and cannot be used.

felix · 8 months ago

You should be able to read it while you're sitting on the runway! Just fly Delta and you'll have hours of hanging out on the tarmac. ;) You don't read in the air?